garvia.es

Student Recap — Session 9

Today’s big picture


Key takeaways

  1. Pre-2008 = rate tool era.
    Cut rates in recessions, hike to cool inflation → classic business cycle.

  2. Post-2008 = rate tool + QE/QT.
    After Lehman, rates hit the zero lower bound → central banks used QE (large-scale asset purchases). This blew up M0 but didn’t 1:1 lift M2 → the money multiplier fell.

  3. COVID mechanics:

    • US: stimulus checks → sharp M2 jumpdemand-pull inflation → rate hikes were the right tool.

    • EU: energy shock (Ukraine) → cost-push inflation → monetary tightening helps less; needs targeted fiscal support.

  4. Bank runs in a high-rate world:

    • SVB: tech deposit outflows + big duration risk on securities → losses → run; all deposits guaranteed → panic ended.

    • NY Community Bancorp: pre-emptive support, minimal headlines.
      → Lesson: Act fast with liquidity and most crises don’t become crises.

  5. Bond intuition you’ll need next class:
    When yields ↑, bond prices ↓ (more for longer duration). Post-COVID hikes (>500 bps in <1 year) made long bonds drop ~30%+, which is why duration risk mattered so much.


Why this matters (for you)


Quick self-check (5 Qs)

  1. What changed in central-bank toolkits after 2008?

  2. Why did M0 explode but the money multiplier shrink?

  3. What primarily drove US inflation after COVID vs. EU inflation?

  4. In one sentence: how did SVB fail, and what stopped contagion?

  5. If the 10-year yield jumps 200 bps, which gets hit harder: a 2-year note or a 30-year bond—and why?


Vocabulary to know


What to review before next class


Dates

Transcript

You have here more than one month, all of you.
Life goes so quick. Life goes so quick.
Let me just go back one second. Sorry, I was waiting for the record to turn on. Because of that I take attendance because I was making time in order to see if the record was going on, but I’ll call.
I saw you coming in and I’m going to just put that stick. I don’t care too much about the sticks. Who is the one that has been in the October 1st? You were no. Who was this weekend in the October 1st? You. You. Oh, both of you were. But you come to Monday class, I think.
There was one person that missed a train or whatever, just to ask him. Did you enjoy October 1st?
Have you ever seen in your life so much? Is there other time in your life that you have seen so much beer? No, it’s something that happens in oh.
I mean, I have passed the class talking about German hyperinflation, but in my head both of you are Germans for for. I mean you you feel how Germans.
You two are. Your name is Loden, Loden, Loden, Loden, Loden, Loden, Loden with D OK and Loden and Claire, Claire, Claire, Claire, Claire Duggan.
Perfect. OK. Anyone else wants me to write the sticks here? OK, Adam, Rhonda. Perfect. Anyone else?
OK, I mean this is not just something that will never happen again. You understand what I mean? No, what is it? OK, another important piece of information is that I have already.
I told you I have already writing was approved, but I want to share it with you again. The final exam will be holding the 3rd of December at 8:00 in the morning as soon as possible. And what else?
That will be the midterm. I don’t know yet what is the midterm. I have that is regarding the midterm that is there are.
There is one slide what is written when the midterm is going to be, isn’t it? I already talked about whatever. I will send you a what’s up. You already have in the slides the date for the midterm, but I’m going to review it and answer it, yes. And also there is going to be one Wednesday.
That I cannot. I don’t remember exactly which Wednesday, but I will tell you in advance. Yes, there will be one Wednesday that I cannot be here. I will tell you and this Wednesday will be free. Yep, that I will tell you.
Any questions? No. I was like, what day did you say was the final? The final, the 3rd of December? I don’t know. I mean, it should be Wednesday. If the 3rd of December is not, is not Wednesday. I’m doing something wrong. The 3rd of December is.
I mean, I I know it. I have said it with you. Let’s let me look it. Let me look it quickly and I will start with on one hand.
22nd of October, 22nd of October, yeah. And but I want to see that there is one Wednesday that I have something, an appointment.
Here there is. I don’t have here 22nd, but just one second. Let me look where are you guys for Ikade for here.
Take lesson 2 and.
Yeah.
You you can find all, not all, but most of this information in Moodle. Yes, all of you have access to Moodle.
Perfect.
Oh, I cannot open this. I have whatever.
There should be. I will see and I will write you, yes.
And I will tell you.
OK.
Where it is? Where it is?
I didn’t share with you what a disaster.
I should have.
Oh.
Did I share with you these graphs, these graphs?
I didn’t do that. Please. Sorry, I am sure we have gone through in class through this last class. Yes, last class.
We went through these graphs, you said it.
I I mean you have in your slides these graphs.
That for me.
And there’s standing this graphs is important. I thought I have shared with you in the WhatsApp group these three graphs.
Last day we went through all of them, yes. I don’t know who did I serve this week then, but let me go.
Step by step interest rates, yes, I am sure we talk about this. I am sure we talk about this.
Three ideas. I’m talking about monetary policy. Not three. Several ideas, yes.
And for me, you to understand, this is absolutely, absolutely, absolutely, absolutely important, yes.
First idea. You have all this information in the slides. Yes, first idea.
There is a before and after year 2008. Yes, what happened in year 2008? FEMA brothers collapse 14th of September.
Meemans brothers collapse. Yes, first idea. There is a before and after 11th of September. Monetary policy before the 11th of September has to do with interest rates. Monetary policy after.
The 11th of September, sorry, the 11th of September, the 14th of September has to do with what is the division. I’m going to go to this. I’m going to explain it slowly, but I have already talked last last.
For this, yes, before 2008 and after 2008 makes sense.
If you go to the slides.
Monetary policy in practice. Here you’ve got monetary policy before 2008 and monetary policy after 2008, yes.
Make sense? Oh, oh, German hyper reflection you have in groups you have talked about this and.
And what is money? We talk about this and this is another important idea.
Before 2008.
Before 2008, we have talked about this, yes.
Here there is Second World War. Yes, before Second World War there was German.
Hyper inflation, yes.
Before Second World War, there is German hyperinflation who have been in October 1st, 1st, 1st who have been in October 1st.
I like the comparison between Spain and German. German. Yes, I’m going to ask one question.
That is incorrect. The question that I am asking is incorrect. Who is more crazy, Spanish or Germans? I mean, there is not a you answer, yes, if we try to draw an average of craziness.
Probably both gear Max and Spanish wouldn’t be the same, yes.
But.
You are living in Spain.
You have been in Germany. You have been in Germany October 1st. Trust me that I’m at a state. Spanish are more free or Italians. You try to drive in Rome.
All day it looks crazy. On average, a normal day, Yemen people are more straightforward. Yes, so normal days.
Spanish are more crazy, but once craziness, craziness happens, Spanish are still happy. It’s very crazy, but not as crazy as the airmans can become. You understand what I mean?
So you have been in Germany?
Yeah, I’m not saying that they we are better than they or worse than they. What I’m saying is that we are different and normally German people are more straightforward. Spanish things more out-of-the-box or there are times that we are.
All the day out-of-the-box. We don’t know what is inside the box.
And it’s not good or bad. What I’m saying is that what is Europe? A combination of all these things, yes, with the positive things and non positive things.
And I’m talking thinking about my Slavic students. Slavic is for it. Slavic.
I really said yes. So thinking about my Islamic and talking from my Spanish perspective, from Spain, you look to the north and from above France, everything looks the same. I’m talking with all respect, but what I’m saying is that if you are in Germany.
You will see that Denmark is different from Sweden, but both of them have crums. Then there is Finland, then there is Norway, but from my point of view, first day of classes of class from Spain.
I thought about Baltic countries as a whole, but Finland is not the same that Norway and is not the same that depending who you are talking with, sensitivity is different, yes, but for Europe.
Germany, Germany is important for Europe. Let me give you 2 reasons. First reason is GDP, 4 trillion is the biggest GDP. And second reason is we’re talking about monetary policy. Where is European Central Bank in Franco?
And he’s not a casualty. Make sense. Is your money important? Yes, it is.
OK, Second World War, German hyperinflation. Yes. And then I don’t want to talk more about that, but I want to distinguish.
Between two parts before 2008, one part.
That is before the 70s.
Where?
Public institutions, institutions made sense, made sense, yes, in this period, U.S. government said.
I’m going to put one man in the moon. And what did USA, USA government did? Putting one person in the moon. Yes, during this term, United Nations was created, International Monetary Fund was created and.
Public institutions made sense, yes.
Once, once, Preto Woods was broken.
The world start changing and there was one world that nowadays is absolutely important. There is a big elephant in the room. We have a big elephant in the room. I have talked about this elephant several times.
What is the name of this elephant? Death. Death. Death. Would it make sense if you are a family to expend, expend more than what you get?
No, no family will do it. No company will do it. If you are a company and you do this, you will go into a contract. Yes. Then the question is why governments do this. I promise I don’t understand why, but I know they are doing.
They are doing since where? Since when?
With German hyperinflation, German people realise how bad was treating them and with written books fail. On one hand, governments start losing.
Confidence from people in one hand, governments starting.
Sorry for what I’m going to say. I feel really sorry, but I’m talking about your own government. In this case, I’m talking about my Spanish government, USA government. Is there a point where you see a government that you say?
You start looking at our government saying hope all these people who work in this way, who do you trust more?
Black Rock or Jerome Powell? And I trust Jerome Powell. I mean, I think he’s a professional. But who do you trust more? Who do you think is going to pay less? 45?
Or.
But if I have the Swedes, Ikia or Swedes, Coca-Cola or USA Inditex or the Spanish government and you see that private companies.
I trust more. I probably someone could be would argue with me, but in the 70s there is a big lack of confidence regarding governments and the snowball is becoming bigger and bigger and bigger. Yes.
But whatever, all these things work still before year 2008.
Central banks free money. Let me call this money being printed by central banks M0 monetary base. Yes, central banks free money. There was an amount of money circulating in the system. Let me call it a money supply to be M2 or M1, yes.
Depends what we are talking about. We talk about what is morning. Here is M0M2.
Central banks deliver control this one and can play with this one hold before 2008 by increasing or dropping interest rates. Yes, I have told you about this. I have told you about this.
I don’t have a Oh, yes. Oh, happiness. This is what I’m.
Can you take this?
If you are, she’s citizens. I am the central bank. Yes. If I drop interest rates, look what I’m doing. Yes, if I drop interest rates, I’m getting something from her. Once I reach zero, I cannot continue dropping.
But look what I’m going to do. If I go there, you see that I cannot push her, push, I cannot push her, but see in an automatic way goes there. You understand what I mean by dropping interest rates.
You get movement by increasing interest rates. She moves back in a natural way because I am increasing. But what I’m saying is you drop interest rates, you get a quick response when you increase interest rates.
You don’t know what you are getting, but probably what you are getting is.
People don’t people.
Say no. OK, if I, if I, if I shout, I will get your attention. If I go back to my normal estate, probably.
Some of you will continue attending, but there will be people that will say, oh, please, I can do whatever I need to do. And I’m not pointing anyone in particular. All of us will do, depending on our situation, one behavior or the other. Yes, you.
I’m talking about incentives, incentives. Today is not the day. But if you tell me to summarize economy, I will tell you supply and demand law, supply and demand law, supply and demand is correct. Supply and demand.
Supply and demand and demand. Supply and demand low. I will tell you please Ruiz, summarize economy, supply and demand low, then incentives and then expectations.
Expectations. If you work with incentives, expectations, and employment, you have almost everything. Why do people move? Because of incentives on one hand and expectations on the other hand. And politics knows this. They know how people work.
Hey, OK, that is monetary base.
And this, this game that I have played with Claire regarding increasing and dropping interest rates, you drop interest rates, what you will get from people happiness because I have money, I will invest, I will start spending money and if you drop interest rates, what can happen?
What happen with prices? Prices go up because a lot of people could chase forward increases. I have more money and I will start and there will be inflation. And if that is what you should do with interest rates, increase them in order to slow down the economy. But if you slow down the economy, what you can have?
A recession. And if you have a recession, what you should do with interest rates? Drop it. And this is the name of the game. Monetary policy has been played before 2008. Make sense? So monetary base.
I went through this the other day. Yes, I have already said with you these graphs and before.
2008 before 2008, this is the name of the game. Interest rates cuts in response to a crisis and then interest rates hike hikes to control inflation, yes.
And this is an economical cycle. Let me see this. We have seen this the other day, but this is absolutely important. I’m going to take here 2008.
Let me go there. I’m going to take here 2008. Let me go there and I’m going to take here 2008 and let me go there. Yes. What is monetary base? Money printed by a central bank, in this case, Federal Reserve, yes.
The money printed by Central Bank. How much money was printed?
I’m sorry, and when I say printed, I’m not talking about physical printed. This should be the issue or issue by central bank 2008 and zero was.
0.8 trivia, yes, MC.
And the name of the game is by increasing or decreasing our profit interest rates. I played it with the amount of money that circulates in the system. This is M0M0 2008. Let me see.
This is you, you lie.
Let me 2008.
You July 7.7 that.
Let me.
Yes 8.
A December 2008 here July September 10th. Let me write and to let me write a trillion in order to say that this is.
Yes.
This is.
10 times, yes, 10 times. What is this? The money issued by the central bank, the monetary base. What is this? The balance of the central bank, the assets and the liabilities. Yes, equity from the central bank is almost is really small at the end the balance it.
Has to do with this number, Yep. But it is the amount of the money that circulates in the system, amount of dollars that runs in the company. And this is a picture in 2008 if you see.
This one and this one, you can see that the monetary multiplier, money, monetary multiplier has been a constant. No. Can you see something by looking here?
Regarding monetary policy, can you read something? No, no. I mean, can you read something here? That is one point.
Here there is one point, and this point has to do with the outcome crisis. And by looking at this point, can you get any information more than there is one point? Personally, no. Also there are points here.
That probably all these points, all these points, Matt, Matt with.
Press conference from.
The Fed, I mean here that is when Federal Reserve did some of these things in order to control monetary base and all these movements match with these movements.
But trust me, this is flat. Yes, not flat. This is without movements. If you want to understand what is going on in economy, where you should look is here. This is the same time. Yes, these three graphs reflect the same time.
How did monetary policy works before year 2008? Here you’ve got we went through this last day. In this point what I’m doing is repeating last day class. Why? Why I’m repeating last day class?
Because I don’t care to repeat, because this is important and because all of I want all of you to understand where we are. Yes, it’s important to understand where we are. I think that yes.
I think that yes.
Hey here, this is the graph.
Before Retton Woods, then there is chaos and then we will go talk about this and the idea is this one, these points and here there are crises. We talk about this, yes.
It’s maximum, each peak corresponds with one big recession, and when there is a recession, what happens? Here you’ve got the recessions are so with these grey streets, yes.
Each one of these great streets has to do with our recession, yes.
What is her recession?
What is her resistor?
When I don’t understand the model, not reading.
That’s what that’s and employment. It’s like 2/4 of.
And you have given German definition and it’s OK. Recession has to do with growth. Recession has to do with growth, with negative growth if you don’t have positive growth for German.
During two periods, during two terms, terms, two quarters. I don’t know if quarter or premature, but in German, if you don’t have growth during two terms.
You are in a recession. You are officially in a recession. You see German GDP, you see that there’s that is 0.00001 of growth. I mean, I’m joking. It’s not 001, but but they are torturing the numbers in order to get growth and in order to say.
Going saying in public they are in a recession.
For the US, it’s almost the same, but you have an official agency that says we have had an I don’t know the name of the, but after one, the recession has already happened. You say during this term there has been a recession.
Make sense?
OK. But these are positions. These points has to do with crisis and let me talk a little bit about this.
Green part.
What I have written is coming. What is coming? Winter is coming. Have you seen?
If I say winter is coming, who knows what I’m talking about in Korea? Oh, sorry for sorry.
You know what I’m talking about if I say winter is winter is coming.
In my head I’m I’m talking about Game of Thrones and then in my head I have moved to.
Calamar game. How do you say it? The squid game. I have moved from Game of Thrones to Squidway game going through the money haste.
Sorry for that, but my head thinking about you. I’m also thinking about the bridge. There is another series bridge between them. There is the bridge between Denmark and Sweden, no.
You know what I’m talking about. If I say squid game, both of you know what I’m talking about. If you say money haste, everyone in Spain knows what I’m talking about and.
Does this matter? Not too much. Not too much about has to do with.
Globalization with culture, with K-pop, with we talk about K-pop. I’m not. I don’t want to repeat, but this idea of culture is important for me. Culture as a geopolitical factor.
Culture is a really, really, really important geopolitical factor. But what is coming? What is coming? Internet is coming. Internet is coming, yes.
Can you imagine how our class was 20 years ago?
It will look, it will, it will have, it look, sorry, it look the same as this class, same structure. I mean it was the same walls.
But there was no Internet.
There were no computers.
Where 60% of my students are now.
Where 60% of my students are now, I mean the number. I mean before talking about this, it was 60. Now it could be just 40.
But you understand what I’m saying. No Internet change everything. There are things that are being changed immediately, but there are other things that will not change for years.
Why? Because of inertia. Were there mobile phones 20 years ago?
20 years ago, 20 years. Oh, 20 years ago. Yes, I’m becoming old. 30 years ago. Were there mobile phones 30 years ago? No.
In less than five years, everyone we pass from not having mobile phones to having mobile phone phones. Why? Because there was no opposition. There was nothing to compete against. There was nothing in mobility, yes.
Bad.
30 years ago there was same as there weren’t mobile phones. 30 years ago there were gas cars. Yes, there are still gas cars. Absolutely, yes. In 10 years there will still be gas cars.
Yes. Why? Because gas cars exist and there is a big industry with lobbies and changing big industries takes times, takes time, yes.
Are we going to have governments the way we’ve got it in 10 years, in 20 years? I will bet that, yes. Should governments change? Absolutely, yes. Will they change? No. Why? Because of power. Make sense.
Now what I’m saying is that Internet, probably in the 90s all your families have Internet at your home.
All your families in the 90s had Internet.
In 2000, all of you were in the Internet, have been in the Internet 2010 in 2010, probably everyone have a social network. Nowadays I will bet that all of you. Is there anyone?
Who does not have Instagram here?
OK, there’s one. Bye.
But you know that it exists and it’s a decision. You can have it, but your decision is I don’t want.
And not because of ignorance. Not because you don’t have a mobile. Not because, not because, not because you understand what I mean. Everyone have or could have social networks.
And governments and all of you still vote your own in your countries with paper, with a sheet of paper in Korea too. You vote with paper. You introduce paper in a box.
All of you.
Yep, in the States, I think that yes, no.
You want from the States? You vote with paper? No, in a little way.
So democracy has evolved, but.
And your democracy, your democracy or democracy, no matter if you vote with paper or in a digital world, is still far from being perfect.
And I’m controlling myself.
You understand what I’m saying? No. What I’m saying is that this is coming took 20 years, not 20 years.
Is really quick. I was. I was alive in year 1995. I was playing in the 80s without the Internet, same as your dad or your mom.
Things are changing so, so, so, so fast.
OK, this I have talked about this and then I have told you the other day about these three things and these three things could be so you can talk, you can see these three events as independent events.
One from another one, but trust me that these three events tell us the same story. Any story regarding Internet?
In the world 11th of September, we all saw that live on television, but I don’t care about.
We show it through Internet or not. What I’m talking about is that everyone, the whole world, look at life at the same time. Information travel in an instant way. Before 11th of September, information went fast and not as fast. Yes, we show this life.
Then Internet wave touch financial system and then Internet wave touch.
Public institutions, touch universities, touch the whole world, but is the life same after COVID?
Did the life change? Did life change after moving?
Absolutely. And at the same time, not as much. And at the same time, much more than what we expect. And at the same time there are when I’m thinking about this is I’m thinking about reactions and other reactions and reactions because of the reactions, yes.
Yeah, OK.
Let me move Internet and also at the same time talking about China, talking about China is important and I am using China as a metaphor of the East.
Talking about Korea is important, but China is bigger than Korea.
But but I have Korean students here, not Chinese.
It was the same story, Second World War.
Sorry for talking in this in this way, but with the Second World War, did the war finish? With the Second World War, did the war finish?
Who say no? OK, but but from the West perspective, once the Second World War finished, the war was over.
And Korean students are thinking about.
Killing me, not killing because that.
There was still war in the East. Korea War finished, I think in the 50s, sixties, 60s in the 60s, Korea War finished.
But saying that the war finished once a country is broken.
Is is not correct.
What I can say is that nowadays.
There is China. I’m talking about Korea. Korea has gone faster, faster than China. And let me say that Japan has gone even faster than both Korea and China. But the idea is that.
After the Second World War, the East had.
Was at developing region, developing region and nowadays they have surpassed us. They has if you go to Korea, sorry.
What is the capital of Korea? Seoul. Seoul. Sorry, Seoul. If you go to Seoul, if you compare Seoul to Madrid, you will say Madrid are living in the in the Middle Ages, yes, with.
What I’m saying is that this is here is written China, but probably I’m talking about 2000. China in the year 2000 was a developing country, yes. And now we talk about this the other day. This is a short term story.
This is just taking this graph here. Internet arrived.com crisis first, then 11th of September attack, a lot of mortgages. Where is you? I have shared with you this thing regarding packages of mortgages, ABS, CDOS. We talked about this the other day.
And here Lemans collapsed. Here there was the bailout bailout of AIA.
I hate in Spanish. My dyslexia kills me. I hate bailout.
AIAIG a loud. This was. I’m not going to share this because I don’t want to share too much information regarding that this AIG rescue happened before Lehman’s collapse, yes.
And.
The idea is that once Lehman Brothers explode year 2008.
OK.
Year 2008 that we move this to year 15.
Look interest rates. After Lima’s collapse, interest rates were dropped to 0 and what was Federal Reserve reaction?
They didn’t have any choice other than start printing money and giving in this case the money to the interbank market. All this new tool after the year 2008. Let me say that interest rates level.
Interest rate tool get broken and how monetary policies start working with quantitative easing. What is quantitative easing? A soft word in order to say quantitative easing is a soft word in order to say.
Central banks printing money year 2008 Central banks start printing money. How much in this case 1.6.
In months here after a yeah, January 2009, year 2009, they double 1.6. They multiply these two times, yes.
And if you look.
Two the amount of.
Yeah.
If you look the amount of money that is in the system.
This is still a trillion, yes, so banking business.
Thanking used to have.
Just to multiply 10 times amount of money in the system, but it moves to five times. Yes, what this means that banks lost half of their business in months.
Did anybody notice in the streets? Nobody. Why? Because it was.
A financial crisis at the Federal Reserve Act at an incredible high speed. Yes, anyone knows Bernanke?
Tell my students who was Bernanke, tell them about his novel.
Price and his work in front of the Fed. Bernanke was the chair in year 2008 of the Fed.
And he’s also an academic. He was studying 1929 crisis. In 1929, the government did nothing. U.S. government did nothing. And because of that 1929 crisis becomes Great Depression.
Yes. Have you heard about the Great Depression? The government in a financial crisis in 1929 did nothing and the crisis become the Great Depression in crisis in financial crisis 2008, the government act with.
Because of this actuation, the financial crisis didn’t transform into a great depression. Yes, let me say I want to explain them why 2008.
Crisis.
Be them.
Tacoma, great depression like the 1929. Make sense? Bernanke was the Fed chair in 2008.
He received the Nobel Prize in year 2000. I will bet 22 two years ago and.
A second Great Depression, who is Bernanke? Perfect. He was the first Sir from 2006 to 2014. He played a key role during the 2008 crisis, helping to prevent a collapse of the global economy. He received Nobel Prize because he worked. Why?
The 2008 crisis in 1929, the Federal Reserve did nothing. When banks failed, there was no cost of insurance. Banks failure to collapse in credit. In 2008, the Fed lower interest rate quickly found liquidity into the system. It bailout support. OK, OK ideas for us. These are OK ideas for students. I will be.

  1. Well, anyone have any thought regarding this?
    This is crazy. This is crazy. Yep, from my point of view, this is crazy.
    E.
    Ernan, he was the head here. He was the well. I have already shared with you all this information.
    And the Federal Reserve print.
    850 billions or .85 trillions in just months and most of them were printed in days. Yep, since the 14th of September to 15.
    They print a lot of money that night. It was a Monday. From Monday to Tuesday, they print that night a lot of money. Why? Because if not, there was going to be not a bank run. A bank run is slow for what it was going to happen. It was going to be a collapse.
    Yes, and by acting so quick, Federal Reserve avoid the collapse. Make sense.
    Any questions? OK and after.
    What?
    The 11th of September, after the 11th of September, if you continue looking at interest rates, let me just write here 25. Oh no, sorry, 25, no, we are in.
    30 of September.
    I’m 25.
    Aye.
    Is this a crisis?
    Is this a crisis? Yes, this is a crisis. This is year 2020. Yes. Is this a crisis? Yes, it is. No. See how small it is? What is the name of that crisis?
    OK.
    And then we are going to talk about this and the idea I want to see you.
    From here is that after 2008 Federal Reserve has continued increasing and dropping interest rates, but monetary policy is not just interest rates. You know Paul talks about interest rates.
    He continued talking about interest rates, saying must I continue doing exams? Yes, but exams means something. EPA means something. You are USA citizens.
    Citizens, are you crazy about GPAS? Yes, my GP. You know, you know what? What is the GPA?
    My NYU students, all my GPA and they cry at all there are, but there are students that cry because there is a lot of pressure regarding great. I don’t know what there is pressure over kids, over kids, no over men that and women that study at university that.
    Ideas interest rates matter, not only matter. We are more crazy regarding interest rates. But trust me, if you try to understand what is going on by looking just interest rates will not, you will not understand nothing.
    You won’t understand what. If you try to understand what is going on just by hearing from declarations, probably you will get just a bias. Look up what is going on.
    Did you just hear from?
    Or Pedro Sanchez in Spain. You just hear government. You just hear your teachers.
    Right, you will have the bias.
    Be anyone of your pictures.
    No about Charlie here before he’s dead, but I have may I should buy. I haven’t phoned one teacher. I haven’t phoned one professor. I haven’t phoned one professor, but no.
    About Charlie Pear, before he said I haven’t. I haven’t.
    Did you know, Corey, about charity before he’s dead? Before he’s dead. My kids in Spain, they knew about charity before. All American students knew before he you knew before he’s dead.
    But you have at least you have heard his name. I’m probably TikTok from one of you. You have outside the states have here have seen his their videos. What I’m saying is that there are big gaps and if you just only here don’t come from.
    We will be one part of the team. Donald Trump is so Donald Trump has power. Donald Trump is the president of the states.
    If you just hear Donald Trump, I will recommend you to hear something, someone younger. I’m not telling not to listen to him. I’m telling you to leave, to hear something younger.
    From another country and probably if he’s or she’s from the east, it would be better. And just by hearing these two people, you have still bias. Go to South America, go to Africa because.
    Yes, by looking at interest rates, you cannot understand everything, yes.
    Monetary base after 2008. If you want to understand what is going on in the world, I recommend you to look at this graph. What is this graph about?
    2030 days.
    I finish, yeah.
    What is this graph about? Monetary base. And if you look at this graph here, you can see the money printed by Federal Reserve. The money printed here, banned here by buying public bonds.
    And here buying valid bonds 1st and then the stimulus takes there. Makes sense. Next day we will start talking. I’m not going to finish yet, but next day I’m going to start talking. I’m going to show you how to calculate next Monday bonds pricing.
    How to calculate the price of bonds? But let me just say that if interest rates increases, bonds prices goes up. Yes, let me tell you.
    Any questions regarding this point?
    Any questions regarding reaching this point?
    No questions.
    Where is here?
    OK, here I don’t have the slides regarding what I’m going to tell you, but.
    I want you to. I want your attention.
    I’m here, OK?
    Look here, what is this graph about? This graph is M2. All these graphs has to do with dollars. All these graphs has to do with dollars and this is an important bias.
    I’m saying bias currency, bias. Yes, talking about dollars is a bias, but.
    Dollar 60%.
    Of currency movement. I don’t know if 60 or 50, but more than the half percent of currency movement has to do with dollars. Dollars play an absolutely important role in the world nowadays, yes.
    I don’t know if this will continue in 40 years, but dollar is important. Makes sense. What is this? The amount of money that’s in place in the system? Oh, before talking about this.
    And here today, monetary policy after all these years.
    2025 Yes.
    Monetary base 5.7 trillion. Yes, monetary base 5.7 trillion.
    And amount of money and two.
    Please.
    22 Yes.
    How much is 32 / 5.7?
    4 around 4:00.
    Perfect.
    This is made over. This would be, I don’t know, but I I don’t care what I want you to see.
    What I want you to see is banking business is becoming lower. Here there has been a little increase. Big picture tell us that central banks please more money.
    And money multiplier becomes lower, yes.
    Now this is 2020 and let me talk a little bit about inflation, yes.
    This is going to be asked. I mean, I don’t know if this is going to be asked in the winter, but it’s one of the things I want you to fully understand. When talking about inflation, there are suicides the offer.
    Andy.
    Supply side, yes. What is in the offer side? Things that are being sold? What is in the supply side?
    People that want to buy things make sense. Yes, let me tell you.
    If first drop and then by then Prince checks, there is inflation, no?
    Why there is inflation?
    We started at six, yes.
    Why there is inflation? Because people have more money in their pocket. If you have double money in your pocket, you have double power. If the things you can buy are the same, what is going to happen with prices will be will become double.
    Make sense? How do you attack supply inflation? How do you attack supply inflation by increasing interest rates with monetary policy? Make sense?
    Makes sense.
    Let me write here, Monetary policy. I want your whole attention in Europe. Did European Central Bank give sex?
    No, and immediately after the pandemic.
    What happened in Europe? Ukraine war, not immediately after, but Ukraine war?
    What did with respect to all the people and with respect to Ukraine? But what did I’m talking about the economy? What did Ukraine work cause?
    Oil price, gas prices increasing. Why? Because our gas, European gas depended on Russia on depend and depended on Ukraine. Yes. So what did we have?
    After the pandemic in Europe, inflation, but not because of checks, because energy prices increase. You understand what I’m saying, inflation in Europe.
    What’s different than inflation in the States? Inflation in the States was it supply inflation, but let me write here.
    United. How do you say United States? Oh, yes, sorry, US. Let me write US here. Yes.
    And in Europe, the inflation we had was inflation was over inflation. Why? Because price of goods, of goods, sorry, becomes higher.
    Demand, supply and demand. Sorry, offer and supply is the same. My dyslexia kills me. Demand. Thanks a lot. Demand, inflation, demand and supply.
    Yes.
    Demand because people has more money, physically more money and supply because of energy. And this is European Union and this is energy. Yes. How do you attack this kind of inflation? How do we attack this kind of inflation? Not with monetary policy.
    With fiscal, fiscal policy, fiscal policy has to do with expenses and taxes. Fiscal policy has to do with you are a taxi driver, you work transporting things. So me as the government should protect you because energy prices has increased.
    You are a family, you are poor, your heat expenditure is going to increase due to the war. I should protect you. Make sense. What I want to transmit you that nature of inflation was different and how in Europe did we attack inflation?
    How in Europe did we attack inflation with monetary policy? Europe we have made there was also fiscal support but later in Europe after the COVID, we have done a lot of things in the incorrect way.
    In Europe we have followed you Federal Reserve track. In Europe we have a different illness. Imagine that in the US you broke your arm. In Europe I broke my leg.
    And because in the US you have put a, how do you call when you broke an arm, a cast because you have broken your arm, you put a cast on your arm. I am in Europe. I have broke my leg and because you put a.
    Cash in your arm. What I’m going to do, because I’m Europe and I’m looking at you, put the cash in my arm while I have a broken leg. You understand what I’m explaining. This is what had happened after the pandemic.
    In Europe there was a war and this put oil prices, energy prices high. In the States there were checks, yes.
    What I’m talking about, I’m talking about a complex war. I’m talking about.
    Things that happens really, really fast. And what I’m saying is that if you look here, this isn’t true, yes, why there is no inflation here? Because this curve didn’t change till the pandemic and here the change was due to the stimulus checks.
    And the stimulus checks cost inflation. Why? Because it’s economical theory. Make sense?
    OK, another thought.
    I like, sorry, I like, yes, I like this one.
    Do you remember this here? Do you remember moving from this point to this point in two years? This point is before Lima’s collapse. In two years, interest rates increases from 100 from 100 basic points from 1% to more than five.
    5%, yes. More than 400 basic points within two years, yes.
    All of you are with me. This led. This led to Limbas file. Yes, after the pandemic there was inflation. And what did Federal Reserve did?
    Because of inflation, they increase interest rates more than.
    Look more than.
    500 basic points in less than one year. Less than one year. Make sense.
    What about mortgages? Nothing really, really bad happened regarding mortgages. Mortgages become more expensive, but nothing really bad have happened.
    But let me tell you one story so quick. But I want all of you to understand, to fully understand this story. Yes, during the pandemic.
    What did you do? Netflix during the pandemic? During the lockdown? What did you do? Netflix? Did the economy? Was the economy stop in the pandemic with the lockdown? Did the economy stop?
    One part of the economy stop. One part the industrial part of the economy stop, isn’t it? But what about the digital part of the economy? It burst.
    What did you do during the pandemic? Netflix series? Instagram asking things to Amazon during the lockdown. What? What? You were in the Internet talking with friends to meetings? Yes.
    And also you were asking things to Amazon. Make sense or not? What happened with Amazon? What happened with Netflix stock prices? They went down. What happened with their companies? They they were, so we’re done, say they were up.
    What happens with their employees? They need to contract a lot of people during the pandemic. They contract people and they grow. Make sense.
    OK. And then we finish. And then we finish, yes.
    What did they do? They they grew. They grow too much. It was the first time in Microsoft, Meta, Apple’s history that they had. Apple, I think they didn’t do too much. Meta did.
    Twitter did. They should fire people. They fire people after the pandemic. They fire people. Why? Because they have grown too much. All of you are with me. If you fire people, you fire people. What do you need? You are a company and you.
    You’re out.
    What do you need if you fire people? If you throw people out of the your company? Liquidity. So here there were technological companies that need tons of liquidity, yes.
    And if you need liquidity, where are you going to go? Your bank and ask for liquidity. I need liquidity because I need to do this exist. Let me tell you the story of one bank that was a really well managed bank and in their balance sheet they have public votes.
    If interest rates increases as much, what will happen with price of bonds? They will drop, but if bonds increases, we will see this later. But if bonds prices, sorry, if interest rates increases in five.
    In 500 basic points, bonds price. If you have a maturity of more than 10 years that they have, bond prices are going to lose more than 30% of the price. Yes, you are a bank, you need liquidity, you need to sell these bonds and you have.
    Hello, 30%.
    Which bank I’m talking about? Which bank I’m talking about? Have you have a Silicon Valley bank?
    Which story I’m telling you? The story of Silicon Valley Bank, March 2023. One day, Silicon Valley Bank realized Silicon Valley depositants realized that Silicon Valley Bank has lost 30% of their balance.
    They have lost 30% of their balance, yes.
    They have lost 30% of their balance. What happened immediately after this piece of new was public panic, all their depositants start taking out their money.
    I’m talking this start happening one Friday, Monday. A lot of people start taking out their deposits.
    Tuesday, Joe Biden public. Joe Biden is the president. He was not the one that. I mean, he he talked. Why? Because he was the president. Joe Biden appeared on television and said all deposits are guaranteed.
    All deposits are guaranteed. After this declaration, panic stop and nobody has heard again about Silicon Valley Bank or problems with banking system. What I’m going to tell you.
    What I want you to see and and also there was one little thing regarding Credit Suisse also by also you said oh look at Swiss, look at at Credit Suisse. They are worse than people start looking at Swiss instead of looking at regional USA banks. But forget about this thing.
    What I want you to see this is a person in the 40 floor. If someone sorry for this metaphor, but I want you to understand this is a person in the 40 floor. The person falls. What will happen if nobody act?
    Before this person fall, no, no, you understand what I mean.
    There is a piece of news. If nobody at the person fall and you can once.
    This time has passed. The damage is done. You cannot do anything. What Federal Reserve learned with Silicon Valley Bank that if you act so quick and before the person falls, you take it.
    Nothing happens. I mean, nobody. There is no damage. Oh, there is. Oh, it has been one of the most emotional rides of my life.
    But there is no blood. You can go back to your home, people can continue working and no damage is done. What Federal Reserve learned after this that if you can act.
    So quick.
    There are not going to be any panics. What Federal Reserve has now, what Central Bank, European Central Bank has now also Europe, they call it.
    It’s PPA. They have several of these or they call it. I don’t know, but they have several names. What is the PPA purchase? I don’t know the name either and I don’t care about the name, but what is this?
    A button and you can press the button and you can have immediately 10 billion or 100 billion. Why? Because if you can act quickly, you are getting stability to the system.
    Makes sense.
    With silicone, have you heard about?
    New York Community Bank Corp. Have you have a New York community?
    Bancorp, have you heard of this bank? Anyone have heard of this bank?
    No one.
    OK.
    No one have hair about this bank.
    All of you have heard about Silicon Valley Bank.
    About Silicon Valley Bank. No, you didn’t hear about Silicon Valley Bank, but most of your you have heard about Silicon Valley Bank and my yes.
    And New York Community Bank Corp? No.
    Silicon Valley Bank was 2023 and it has to do with the Internet. The story that I have told you, New York Community Bank Corp is a New York bank that has offices. The story is the same. The difference among them is that in New York, in Silicon Valley Bank, there was information.
    Public information and regarding New York Community Bancorp, the Federal Reserve has act before information reach the press.
    What I’m what I’m trying to transmit you that if there is no piece, a piece of new.
    There is no scandal, there is no crisis. You see what I’m saying?
    You understand what I’m saying?
    If you can print money quick and you can close the hole, nobody will have problems with the hole.
    And this is what Federal Reserve has learned. This is what European Central Bank has learned and is acting so, so, so quick. If there is a problem in the economy, what Federal Reserve will do at quickly?
    And work for stability. Why Federal Reserve can act quickly? Look here, you see here stable, but then happening. But here what is this job?
    Look this one. What is this one?
    What is this story? This one? Yeah, already. Oh, this year, it’s like on Valley Bank crisis.
    What is this? This other jump? I don’t know if this one or this one, but this New York Community Dunkor. If you ask quickly, you avoid no make sense.
    Now 5 minutes, let me ask you a quick question. Is there is there an AI bubble?
    Is there an AI puppet?
    Personally, yes, yes, without any doubt, but but.
    If there is a big hole, what Federal Reserve probably can do? Have you have a star link?
    What is Starlink? What Sam Almond has said two days ago or three days ago? We will need global money. Starlink is yes. What is Starlink? No, Starlink. No, sorry.
    Start it.
    Sam Alman project. Trump has said that he had a project for 500 billion in order to promote AI and the name of the project was Stargate. Yes, what is Stargate? Excuse.
    You need money, don’t worry. You need money in order to continue growing the speed you are growing. Thank you because with this money.
    The problem has got to do with bubbles. A bubble is not a problem. What is the problem when the bubble passed?
    If you have money in order to avoid babbling parts.
    I don’t know what is going to happen. I know the game we have played in this point and I know that understanding that there was one war before 2008 and then there is another war after is important and in this new war we.
    What matters, John? Liquidity. And the sooner you can put liquidity to the market, the better. Makes sense. Today’s class is important. Why? Because it fits. Sorry, it fits. It connects several of those.
    We have been looking till this point, yes. Next day we will start talking about fixed income, we will start talking about bonds valuation and we will continue talking. Yes, perfect.